After contracting for 2 straight quarters, Indian economic system witnessed marginal progress of in the October-December quarter. India’s gross home product (GDP) grew 0.4% year-on-year, official knowledge launched by the National Statistics Office confirmed on Friday. Indian economic system had grown on the fee of 4.7% in the identical quarter final 12 months. The restoration is because of astute dealing with of the lockdown and a calibrated fiscal stimulus, the federal government mentioned.
India had slipped right into a technical recession throughout July-September when GDP fell for 2 successive quarters. In the July-September quarter, India’s GDP contracted 7.5% year-on-year. The economic system shrank 23.9% year-on-year in the April-June quarter in the wake of coronavirus outbreak and nationwide lockdown to stop the virus. NSO revised GDP progress for June and September quarters to -24.4% and seven.3% respectively in opposition to earlier estimates of -23.9% and -7.5%.
“Real GDP has proven marked enchancment over the quarters of the Financial Year (FY) with progress charges of -24.4%, -7.3% and 0.4% for Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively,” Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation mentioned.
Nominal GDP has additionally seen related enchancment over the quarters of the FY with the expansion charges of -22.2%, -4.2% and 5.3% for Q1, Q2 and Q3 respectively, it added.
Gross worth added (GVA) grew 1% year-on-year in the quarter below assessment.
Reserve Bank of India earlier indicated that the Indian economic system has additional recovered and estimates the GDP to show positive in the third quarter.
“GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2020-21 is estimated at ₹36.22 lakh crore, as in opposition to ₹36.08 lakh crore in Q3 of 2019-20, exhibiting a progress of 0.4 per cent,” NSO mentioned.
“The 0.4% year-on-year progress in actual GDP is broadly in line with avenue expectation and is considerably stronger than the GDP prints witnessed in the course of the earlier two quarters. The present print will probably additional enhance the expectation of a 7-8% year-on-year contraction in actual GDP throughout FY21,” mentioned Siddhartha Sanyal, chief economist and head of analysis, Bandhan Bank.
“Furthermore, whereas expectations of GDP progress throughout FY22 stays robust, partly reflecting a markedly beneficial base, one wants to notice that the trail for sequential progress can nonetheless be uneven and unsure,” he added.
Commenting on the expansion, Sakshi Gupta, senior economist, HDFC Bank mentioned, “Q3 GDP was barely decrease than expectations, albeit confirmed that the economic system did transfer into the inexperienced. Going forward, we’re prone to see a continuation of a Okay-shaped restoration with some sectors rising sooner than others.”
“We count on progress to print at 1.5% in This fall and -7.5% for the entire 12 months FY21. We count on GDP for FY22 at 11.5%. We count on the economic system to achieve pre-pandemic output ranges by the top of the calendar 12 months 2021,” she added.
Real GDP is predicted to contract by 8.0% in 2020-21 as in comparison with 4.0% progress in 2019-20 as per first revised estimates, ministry mentioned.